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predicted president obama would be re-elected and that the u.s. is not likely to fall off the fiscal cliff. there are lots of rumblings coming out of washington. let's turn to scott bauer of trading advantage to talk about this alleged fiscal cliff. what do you think - and good morning - deal or no deal, scott? > > good morning angie. yeah, there is going to be a deal. it may not be later this week, it may not be next week, but i think at a minimum we are going to see congress, the president, everyone say, you know what, we are on the table together here, and even if we have to extend this three months, six months, we are going to get it done. there is no way with the recovery that we have seen - and i'm not talking about the stock market recovery, i am talking more of the consumer sentiment recovery, housing recovery - with what we have seen the last quarter of this year, there is no way that the guys in washington can harm that or add anything to take the momentum away from that. it just won't happen. > let's talk about the stock market. what levels are you watching here? > > 1390 really
. > > weeks before the election, although we questioned it, traders were confidentely telling us the president would be re-elected. it happened. so how do the odds look for a recession in 2013? > > the markets tell us a lot. when we were looking at the election, we were looking at a prediction market that had a lot of volume. volume is the key to price discovery because of all the buyers and sellers. when we are looking at the fiscal cliff numbers, they are not as clear, because there is not as many traders to get that information from. > > ben bernanke was in new york yesterday, and he is urging lawmakers to strike a deal on the fiscal cliff sooner rather than later. should we be concerned? because it sounds like the fed is worried. > > we are always concerned. if you look at it, the long-term bears have been beaten up by the markets for the last four years. so, the market has been resilient and bounced back from everything. if we look at some of these predictions markets, there is about a 50/50 chance it will be above 13,000 in the dow, and there is a very low chance, only a 20% chance, albe
.com correctly predicted what was going to happen with the election, and now it is telling us about the fiscal cliff, and the odds are very low that we will go over that fiscal cliff. so, does this change anything in the trading community other than just not having this outlet? > > i think smart traders stay away from markets like gold and oil because volume is the key. without big volume, you don't distill that information that you need to make a decision. so, i don't think it is going to dissuade anybody. but if you really wanted to trade these markets, just like online poker, there are ways to do it, even if you are in the united states. but they are probably better to stick to the prediction business, because that is what they do best. > the statement appears on intrade's site, as he alluded to. it is calling the report of intrade's death premature, and that there are plans for a new exchange model to make it legal. hugh, any thoughts on what a new model could look like? what can they do, move to the cayman islands? > > they are in dublin right now, so i don't think a movement is what's in
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